Real UFC historical baseline
MMA win probability, starting with verified UFC fight history
MMAPredict now ingests a public UFCStats-derived CSV, normalizes completed fights into
data/raw/mma, and walks them chronologically through an ELO + Glicko-2 baseline.
PFL, ONE, Bellator and consensus benchmarks remain honest source-plan items until a stable free feed is verified.
Raw fights
6,517
Rated fights
6,456
Fighters
2,283
Brier
0.242
Top active-seeded ratings
Full rankings| # | Fighter | Division | ELO | Record in data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Jones | Heavyweight | 1891.9 | 21-1 |
| 2 | Georges St-Pierre | Middleweight | 1877.0 | 20-2 |
| 3 | Dustin Poirier | Lightweight | 1840.3 | 21-6 |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | Lightweight | 1837.6 | 22-9 |
| 5 | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Lightweight | 1837.6 | 13-0 |
| 6 | Amanda Nunes | Women's Bantamweight | 1834.3 | 16-2 |
| 7 | Kamaru Usman | Welterweight | 1834.1 | 15-2 |
| 8 | Aljamain Sterling | Bantamweight | 1829.9 | 15-3 |
Recent chronological backtest predictions
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Miranda Maverick46.6% A-win
2023-06-10 路 Women's Flyweight 路 Jasmine Jasudavicius won
Eryk Anders vs Marc-Andre Barriault57.0% A-win
2023-06-10 路 Middleweight 路 Marc-Andre Barriault won
David Dvorak vs Steve Erceg52.0% A-win
2023-06-10 路 Flyweight 路 Steve Erceg won
Dan Ige vs Nate Landwehr49.2% A-win
2023-06-10 路 Featherweight 路 Dan Ige won
Blake Bilder vs Kyle Nelson57.9% A-win
2023-06-10 路 Featherweight 路 Kyle Nelson won